dsvw56

Complicated math time.

Really, there's only two hands you're facing here. He either has two over cards, or an overpair.

Realistically, you're risking 6000 to win 6250.

Let's (for simplicities sake as I don't really feel like doing the math on all the possible combinations to make his hands here) that 25% of the time, he'll hold an overpair and 75% of the time, it's just two overcards.

If he has two overcards, you're only like a 2% favorite to win the hand, and against hands of middle suited connectors, like 10-9s or J-10s you're actually a slight dog or dead even money.

If he has an overpair, you're only about 17% to win.

So lets say that against two overs, you have a win % of 52% and against a bigger pair, you're 17% to win a pot of 12250.

If he has two overs, 6370 of that pot belongs to you.
If he has a higher pair, 2082.5 of that pot belongs to you.
On average, you're only getting back 5300.

Just another way to look at it, hope you can understand it.

__________________
If I cared, I wouldn't be the don't care bear.

Deco

You haven't included the time he folds and I take down 2250 at no risk

Also your 25%/75% is a good approximation under normal circumstances but not for a button raise that could be a blind steal when high cards become much more likely.

Its when I pick up the pot without a showdown that would create the profit within this hand.

dsvw56

Rarely do I see a fold here as he's getting nearly 2:1 with a short stack moving all-in from the blinds. Pretty much any face card and it's a call.

__________________
If I cared, I wouldn't be the don't care bear.

Deco

your overestimating the opposition.
They very rarely think in terms of odds but instead think in terms of if their beat or not.

This move would get a fold for me at least 30% of the time,more when its a blindstealer am up against

stingray2906

Deco where are you playing $5.00 MTT that they fold 30% of the time when being re raised by the shorter stack ?
And do they let U.S. players play there ?
I want to play !!

dsvw56

lol no kidding, you'd be lucky to get the average $5MTT player to fold J-5 here

I was just playing in a $10MTT a little while ago and this is how I went out. For some reason my hand history converter isnt working, but anyways :

The blinds were 150-300
I had 6000 in chips in the BB

I get dealt QQ in BB
Player in the CO with 24000 raises to 1200
I move all-in
CO calls and shows Ks-6s
Flop :
K-5-6
I go out.

__________________
If I cared, I wouldn't be the don't care bear.

Deco

yer ok as its a $5 MTT thats probably were my move falls down the drain

lulo1210

believe me deco dont matter if they dont know the odds in this situation...this guy at least knew that this was a coinflip situation that he can win 1 in 2 times...there are only 2 hands he needs to be worried about AA and KK and thats very unlikely and also he had his hand sooted giving him and slightly 3% more chances...so he knew he could beat any medium or small pair 50% of the time and if he manage himself to win that pot he will be in good shape to stand a fight the rest of the tournament
i think you are more like cash game player as well as me ...AK isnt that good as it looks we have to fold it sometimes because for experecience we know AK could be weak most of the time...in tourneys its different and i think that AK has more value in tournaments and we have to play this hand different than we play it in cash games

Deco

Yes I think your forgetting I cant see his hand.

When I post hands like this too many people presume I had their ability to see the cards my opponent held.
I think I shouldn't reveal what cards my opponent had before gathering people's opinions

stingray2906

That sounds like fun we can see if we can put them on there hand !!!