dsvw56

OK this is a hand I played last weekend. This shows the value of knowing your opponent, knowing how your opponent perceives you, and having the courage to trust your instincts.

A little back story about the villain.
The most important piece of information I have picked up about this guy is that he favors small suited connectors and loves to try to draw out after the flop. This guy will chase just about anything most of the regardless of whether or not he's getting the right odds. Other than his penchant for SSC's, he seems fairly ABC TAG. He also bluffs frequently on the river if it is checked to him.
I've played with this guy many times and here's what I believe he thinks of my play. I know for a fact he doesnt respect my bets, as he knows I'm very loose and aggressive. He's constantly attacking my bets when I bet after the flop. He will raise me if he hits any sort of pair on the flop as he knows I like to bet my draws.

As the hand plays out, I'll be putting what I was thinking about in parenthesis

Ok, on to the hand
B&M Casino
NL300 Full Ring
Blinds $2/$5

Effective stacks :
Hero ~ $450
Villain ~ $500

Hero has AQ in MP2
Folds to Hero
Hero raises to $20 (I'm obviously raising here, no explaination needed)
Folds to Villain in CO
Villain calls $20
Button, SB, and BB fold

Ok, success. I picked up a fairly big hand and narrowed the field substantially. Heads up is exactly where I want to be.

Flop
J-10-4
Pot $43 (The rake is already taken out as its been maxed at $4)

Ok, not a great flop for me, but not horrible. I did manage to pick up a gutshot straight draw giving me a couple extra outs. The way I see it, this is a perfect spot for me to try a continuation bet and try to end the pot right here.

Hero bets $30 (I took the lead pre-flop with a raise and now I want to keep it so I make a standard continuation bet, roughly 2/3 the pot. Also looks like a standard bet I would make if I were holding AJ or KJ and caught a piece of that flop)

Villain calls (Not the result I was looking for here. But this gives us an opportunity to limit my opponents holdings. There's no way in my mind he's holding a J or a 10 as he would have raised me. A 4 seems unlikely unless he's holding 4-5 but I don't see him calling on this flop as he has no straight possibilities. I don't see him slowplaying a set of 4's either with the broadway straight draw out there. He could possibly be floating on this flop with an underpair, possibly eights or nines. If that is the case, a standard bet on the turn should get rid of thim. The only other possibilites would be KQ, Q9 or 89 for a straight draw. These seem the most likely.


Turn
J-10-4-4
Pot $103
This seems to be a fairly good card for me, as I don't believe this could have improved my opponents hand. Time for me to find out I guess.

Hero bets $60 (Another fairly standard bet, again about 2/3 the pot. This bet should give me a really good idea of where my opponent is at)

Villain calls (Again, not what I wanted, but now I'm fairly sure he is on the straight draw. The only other possibility I can think of now is maybe a weak 10 like 10-9 maybe and he doesnt believe me)

River
J-10-4-4-6
Pot $223
Well that doesnt help me, but more importantly, it doesn't help my opponent (or so I think).

Hero checks (I was fairly confident I was still ahead here, but my hand is nowhere near strong enough to attempt to value bet here. Instead I'm looking for a cheap showdown. This pot has already gotten out of control with how weak my hand is)

Villain bets $120 (OOOOOHHHHH, not good. Let's go back in to the think tank for a second. He simply called a raise in position pre-flop. So obviously TT+ is out of the question as he would have re-raised. AK is pretty much out too as I don't see him sticking around that long with it. On the flop he flat called again so J10+, 109+ is out. This opponent seems too solid to call me with bottom pair, even though he knows I'm fairly loose. The most obvious choice here is a busted straight draw and he's making a last ditch effort to win the pot. The only thing that makes a lick of sense here is possibly an out of line mid PP, like 9's or 8's. I don't see any other hand that matches this line. So I am ahead if he has the busted straight draw which seems like the most likely answer. But can I make this call? Well he's betting $120 in to a $220 pot giving me roughly 3:1 on my money. So in order to make this a profitable call, I'd have to be right roughly 25% of the time. In this particular situation, I believe I am right)

Hero calls.
Villain mucks. (Yes, he mucked before we even showed down so obviously he had nothing)

Hero wins $463

__________________
If I cared, I wouldn't be the don't care bear.

Holis

Great post!

Thanks DSVW

chitown662

I agree what a great read on your opponent very well done.

__________________
Cards!!!

Macthompson

how many words can u type a min.
cause allthogh it was a nice post that would
have taken me all day to type
lol

__________________
If u beat me its because the horseshoe up my <br />butt was hurting too much so i took it out

stingray2906

Great read ,great post!
how many times have you played him?

dsvw56

I've probably played against him on at least 20 different occasions. And I dunno how many words per minute I can type, but I am fairly fast.

__________________
If I cared, I wouldn't be the don't care bear.

sexyredhead3z

thats an awesome story way to read the villan haha good job

nrhs05

Sweet call, i donno if i have the stomach to call 120 on a gut intuition :P (well if i had the bankroll to i wouldnt mind haha) i love when people dont mix up the way the play at all so you can know what they are going to do before they do like u did here, most ive called down on a board with a hand like this would be about 20 bucks :P
ill know not to bluff u too much dsvw btw :P
its a known fact ur gut feeling/ first thought on a hand is more often than not right

ryan1984

You had your opponent pegged. Very nice read. I think that no matter what you do in poker, weather it's lay down a big or come over the top of someones huge raise, you just have to be confident in what you are doing. Never second guess yourself or it will start to play on your confidence.